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There you have it, nothing complex here. This is my best educated guess as to how the tournament will turn out. This is uninfluenced by my own preference, just what my analysis tells me. I predict a weaker-than-expected campaign from Saki: Achiga-hen — quantity does not equal quality. Oftentimes, it’s the opposite. The original series was thunder and lightning, but then wilted in the quarterfinals. I don’t believe that a weaker season can do better. Nisemonogatari will disappoint, but the Fire Sisters and Hitagi should at least make group semis. Fate/Zero should prove solid, but nowhere close to being a legitimate threat. Yuru Yuri will be strong, and should be a threat deep in the tournament despite Yui getting upset by Karen. Nagi is probably one of the more outlandish picks for Group D, but I don’t see Mihoko getting to top 8. I can’t really predict a champion without seeing the quarterfinals pairings, but Meat, Chitanda, and Akari are the strongest candidates. (more…)

Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time to talk about Japanese people voting for their favorite female 2D cartoon characters. The draw has been announced, so we can all tear the bracket up and predict how all the characters are going to perform. My colleague Aeroblip and I will be posting our full prediction brackets right before the start of the tournament, but for now here is my take on first round matches that will ROCK YOUR WORLD. After all, the first round is the most chaotic and festive time in tournaments like this. Cinderellas start their run, while tournament hopefuls have their dreams heartlessly crushed before they even begin. Let’s get started on first round matches you absolutely don’t wanna miss.

August 14th featured the first two tournament matches. A record 43 girls from Saki are featured in the draw for this year’s Saimoe, and what better character to lead off a historical campaign than the eponymous lady herself? I would argue that despite her titular role, she is hardly the flagbearer of the franchise. I felt that Nodoka or Yuuki were more threatening in 2009, and her relegation to side-plot in Achiga-hen does little to bolster her cause. However, I don’t see Maho-chan or Himari mounting a serious challenge to this Saimoe veteran.

Saki 66%; Maho 25%; Himari 6%; Nanako 3% (percentages represent probability of winning, not vote split)

This match is incredibly hard to predict, as it pits a strong character with non-existent franchise support with a weaker character with strong franchise support. Characters like Mei don’t generally do well in Saimoe, but she bucked the trend finishing runner-up in her Prelim group. I give Mei around a 58% chance of winning because I think Rias tend to snip more votes from Ayano than Mei. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Ayano pulls away with this one to set up Sakurako’s match with Azusa on the 20th.

Mei 58%; Ayano 41%; Rias 1% (more…)

Covering Saimoe was one of my first blogging exploits. It was fun to talk about characters and it was an intersection of my two favorite things: fapping over anime girls and overreactive sports commentary. This year, I’m going to experiment going back to my roots. So over the next few weeks, I will be providing round-by-round coverage of the Anime Saimoe Tournament, starting with pre-tournament speculation this week. Hopefully, this will be well-received and we can make this a yearly tradition. Don’t worry, we will still have a regular stream of trolling about anime during this time. Today, I will talk about the Six Critical Questions I have about this year’s tournament. As theSaimoe Illustrated cover suggests, I will highlight some key first round matches later on this week, and finally Aeroblip and I will give you our full bracket predictions. As the tournament progresses, we will break it down round-by-round. Welcome to your home for Saimoe coverage this year! We hope you enjoy your stay. (more…)

Alright, it’s that time of year again. That time of year when everyone gets to speculate and get trolled by the results of the Anime Saimoe Tournament. The tides of destiny have receded, leaving only 8 girls left to vie for a place in Anime Immortality. All 8 girls are from shows that have never made it this far into the contest. I loved the bracket format this year, with 1v1 matchups as early as round 3. Back to the 2009 format, which featured its good share of bloody matchups. What’s going to happen? There are 128 ways to fill out your bracket, so let’s run down the line.

Elephant in the Room

Puella Magi Madoka Magica. With four girls in the top 8, this show has the best probability to have a character win the tournament. Because of the seeding breakdown, the show is collectively guaranteed to advance to the quarterfinals. Statistically, the most powerful character in the draw is Tomoe Mami, who won both her round 3 and group final match with a 70% margin. Kyouko and Madoka have also benefitted from convincing, no-contest victories in their own individual brackets.

However, history has told us that our magical girls are doomed. The fate of Saki in 2009 is the most obvious thing that comes to mind. In fact, the pairing for Puella Magi Madoka Magica in the quarterfinals is exactly identical to the draw Saki got in 2009 (down to Kyouko getting the left side of quarterfinal 2, and Mami getting the right side of quarterfinal 4). Clannad also struck out of the top 8 in 2008, as Nagisa, Tomoyo, and Fuuko shared a mere 1 victory between them.  A faction can’t be too successful — strong anti-factions and poor inter-series matchups are a huge factor in sinking the ship.

Match to Watch

If you could only follow one match, I recommend looking at Squid Girl vs Mami. This is the critical bellwether to see if the Puella Magi Madoka Magica faction has fallen. This is the third match involving a Puella Magi character in a row, and it happens right after a particularly disruptive mirror match between Madoka and Sayaka. How many votes Sayaka gets will also be a key metric in seeing how strong the anti-faction is. If Mami drops this, Puella Magi is dead.

Dark Horse

Astarotte Ygvar. She should be able to take down the much-outclassed Erica Hartmann and her semi-final happens first, right after the huge turning point mentioned above. The effects of a crashing faction on the leftmost semifinalist isn’t speculative either: both times there were three or more girls from the same show in the top 8, the leftmost semi-finalist won the tournament. It’s a huge momentum boost.

Additionally, Astarotte has proven to be extremely dangerous, taking out contenders Makise Kurisu and Misaka Mikoto. Characters in group A who won their first match averaged 346.8 round one votes, making Lotte’s group statistically the most powerful group in the tournament. I think these are perfect storm conditions for our little loli succubus.

Advantage

Squid Girl is the only character of the eight who have an anime airing currently. Too bad it’s on a mid-season hiatus until the end of the tournament…

kevo’s Favorite

Kyouko. I love Kyouko. I don’t really care for the other Puella Magi girls (though I wouldn’t mind Madoka herself). Squid Girl would be kind of cool, too.

Prediction

According to my RPI models (I spent a bit too much time on this post…) and because it’s freaking ballsy, and against my personal interests, I am predicting Astarotte Ygvar to win the Anime Saimoe Tournament 2011, with a 52-48% victory over Squid Girl.Yes, I am betting against Madoka– history and my gut tells me it’s the right thing to do. You heard it first on here.

Ahh, it’s that time of year again. The time of year when kevo’ blogs about Saimoe and no one reads his blog. Oh well, haters gonna hate. This year, Saimoe Japan will go back to the format used back in 2008, with only 288 entrants into the bracket (contrary to over 500 in 2010). This makes for an intense contest all around (1v1 starting in the third round again, finally!) with even more pressure on the Preliminary rounds!

As noted above (that Photoshop took up my afternoon lol), the first preliminary round was shredded by shows making their Saimoe debut (i.e. they started airing since last year’s contest). In fact, 15 of the 16 groups making up the first round of prelims were won by characters who have never participated in Saimoe. Shana was the lone veteran to take her group.

This will be good. I felt like Saimoe last year didn’t have too many new faces. In fact, with Shakugan no Shana, Mahou Shoujo Lyrical Nanoha, and Fate/stay night returning, it felt like a classic bout from 2007 (which is pretty cool in its own right). But now the entire field has churned, and we’ll start seeing new faces instead of bickering amongst the august factions of yore.

All five main characters of Puella Magi Madoka Magica won their respective groups. That juggernaut is rolling. If Vegas had a bet on if one of the five girls would win Saimoe this year, I’d vote against them for two reasons. First, I’m a little weary of franchises that leap so quickly out of the gate, however. Remember when K-ON! first appeared back in 2009? Second, I have a feeling there would be better odds against them, and I never bet on the “expected result”. If I had to pick a girl now, without seeing any brackets and just thinking about pedigree and vulnerability, I’m thinking Gokou Ruri (Kuroneko). My favorite girl, however, is Kyouko.

You can find more info about the most up to date Saimoe data at this website. As always, ciao.

So another exciting year of Saimoe is over. In the end, my girl Nagi couldn’t get it done. In the past few months, my favorite character has risen from a solid and consistent performer to becoming the only girl to make it to two finals and amassing the second most career victories of all time. But alas, a Anime Saimoe Tournament title was too much to ask.  Though Nagi had lots of support and love, it really wasn’t too close as Azu-nyan prevailed 1516-1339.

Nakano Asuza capped K-ON!‘s triple crown of  2010 along with Akiyama Mio’s wins in Korean Best Moe and International Saimoe. After a disastrous start for the series in their Saimoe debut in 2009, K-ON! now sits atop the saimoe world. Good for them, I liked this season and I am a closet Mio fan. I just wish it didn’t involve crushing my dreams and hopes of Nagi 2010…

Go away, Yui, you didn't win shit.

I voted for Mio in her win over Misaka in the ISML finals (yay!). I didn’t really pay attention to Korea this year (I think I voted for Hitagi in… some round once), but her 150 vote win over Tenshi made her the first girl to win ISML and KBM in the same year. All we need now is a Saimoe Japan / ISML double to complete the triangle, though that’s rather unlikely given the different dynamics of the two contests. Another crazy year, thanks for everyone who followed along. Till next year, signing off.

Group finals officially started a few hours ago, and the first match, Group A Finals, are under way. Due to rule changes this year, group finals are 3 way instead of one-on-one. After this round, 8 girls will be left to form the quarterfinals. No more easy matchups against extras from shows no one has ever heard from, these matches are loaded with proven winners backed by rivaling factions.Let’s handicap some matches here. I’ve included some odds for extra insight. I’ve also invoted my colleague Seishi from LunaticAntics to help me with a few groups.

Group A
Yuno (Hidamari Sketch) [15-1]
Sengoku Nadeko (Bakemonogatari) [3-2]
Sanzenin Nagi (Hayate the Combat Butler) [3-5] (my vote)

I should be impartial to my predictions, but I am heavily leaning towards Nagi in the match going on right now. I’ve already cast my vote, and I believe she will make her second top 8 in less than 24 hours. Her competition isn’t as stiff as it could be — Bakemonogatari has seen a few speed bumps this year and the faction doesn’t look as strong as it could while Yuno has good Saimoe experience but those days are far behind her.

Again, I emphasize impartiality being key to this Saimoe preview. It’s not like I’m asking you to vote for Nagi or anything. She’s only like, the best character ever it’s not a big deal.  Remember, vote for Nagi. There’s only a few hours left. Unless you don’t like Nagi, in that case, don’t fail to forget to vote today.

Group B
Shana (Shakugan no Shana) [3-5]
Takamachi Nanoha (Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha) [3-5] (my vote)
Saginomiya Isumi (Hayate the Combat Butler) [20-1]

Takamachi Nanoha goes for her record 19th win tomorrow against Shana, against whom she is a career 0-1. Shana was her last opponent in 2008, and many believed it would be the last opponent of her career. By fate, Shana has a chance to end Nanoha’s career twice. The subplot will definitely play in as no one wants to go out to the same character twice. This will probably be the most intense Saimoe match so far, as the characters are so powerful and closely matched it’s impossible to determine a favorite. Both characters burned through tough groupings to get here, but I would give a very slight edge to Nanoha based on momentum and voting trends. (more…)

Profiles in Moe: Takamachi Nanoha

by kevo

Profiles in Moe is part of an ongoing series about the characters, personalities, and events behind some of the most colorful and prolific Saimoe contestants ever. Join me tonight as we relive the career of the greatest Saimoe competitor of all time. The lovable heroine who holds friends closer in her heart than anything else, Takamachi Nanoha. (more…)

Fall is saimoe season, but with Saimoe Japan in full swing and Korea prelims wrapping up, lots of people have overlooked the big tournament that was going on this entire year — the International Saimoe League.

Instead of a simple tournament, ISML is a massive 50 character round robin event lasting almost all year. ISML attracts more voters on average than any other contest, with thousands of voters pouring in every week. ISML is unique in how accessible the voting is. Similar to Korea Best Moe, voting is intuitive and integrated into your web browser graphically. No need to post on a board and you don’t even have to wait for a voting code. They also strive to create a great community surrounding the contest, providing official forums for voters to contribute art as well as contest discussion as well as offering content, rules, and ballots in several languages.

Some elements of ISML are very intriguing to me. The regular season is split into 7 “rounds” and the best performer in each round wins the round’s necklace. The complex ranking system is sort of reminiscent of BCS college football, and I think it’s kind of fun. Cool, fun things like the space opera and logos for different series also add lots of flavor to ISML. Obviously I can nitpick a little: the post-season is a seeded bracket, and if a bracket is seeded, double elimination is unnecessary. The preseason qualification process is also way too complicated and opaque for laymen to understand. Upsets are also kind of sparse, but when they do happen it just makes them more exciting. But alas, that’s all just splitting hairs. Though it’s the youngest of the three contest, it looks like it’s the most refined. A dedicated staff, a great community, transparent staff processes, friendly graphical user interfaces, and a simple voting system combine to form a very fun contest. After a very successful third season, ISML is heading into it’s post-season — the “playoffs” if you will. I sat down with ISML staff member KholdStare for a Q&A session. (more…)

In a matter of hours, the 2010 Anime Saimoe Tournament will begin. It seems like just yesterday when Taiga completed the double and took home both Saimoe trophies, and now the process begins anew to crown a new queen of moe.

The defending champion isn’t in the field for the first time since 2005 since no new Toradora installment aired in the interlying period between tournaments. Conversely, new installments of older franchises have bought back many legendary contestants hailing from series long thought finished. Nanoha, Saber, and Shana all make a triumphant return. The Higurashi no Naku Koro Ni series makes an unprecedented 6th appearance in Saimoe, while Sergent Frog‘s Angol Moa and Detective Conan‘s Haibara Ai both make record 7th appearances. Today, let’s look at some first round pairings that have specifically piqued my interest. You can find the full bracket here. We all know that the “randomness” of the draw is pretty much bullshit, but as with other years a few very interesting matches look to be coming up very early in the tournament that could spell disaster for many a character. (more…)